Division I still has the strongest connection to professional opportunities, but players do move from Division II, Division III, NAIA and junior college into MLS, NWSL, USL and overseas—just with lower probabilities and a narrower, more individual path. NCAA data suggest that well under 2% of all college soccer players reach major professional leagues, even from Division I, and an increasing share of pros now emerge from pro academies, MLS NEXT Pro and USL pathways instead of traditional college routes.
Division I: main college-to-pro highway
At Division I level, the MLS SuperDraft and NWSL Draft are still heavily populated by players from top conferences such as the ACC, Big Ten and Pac‑12, and recent drafts show first‑rounds dominated by D1 athletes. These players benefit from national TV exposure, conference tournaments and NCAA championships that are regularly scouted by MLS, NWSL and USL clubs.
In practice, the best odds sit with players at top‑25 programs who are key contributors, rack up serious minutes and awards, and add strong summers in USL League Two, NPSL or MLS NEXT Pro. Even so, most D1 players never sign a professional contract, so the “correlation” is relative: high compared to other college levels, but still low in absolute terms.
Division II: viable but secondary route
Division II has no structural barrier to the pros and has produced players for USL Championship, USL League One and occasionally MLS or foreign first divisions. Top D2 programs often resemble mid‑major D1 sides in quality, with a mix of domestic and international players who may have had D1 options but chose better academic, financial or playing‑time fits.
For a D2 player, the pro route usually runs through standout college performance plus high‑level summer competition and exposure events, with USL clubs a more common first landing spot than MLS. The correlation with pro outcomes is therefore lower than D1 overall, but meaningful for the top slice of D2 All‑Americans, conference players of the year and physically mature seniors who look “plug‑and‑play” at USL speed.
Division III: rare, niche outcomes
Division III prioritizes academics and offers no athletic scholarships, and the vast majority of D3 players never seriously pursue professional contracts. Nonetheless, there are documented cases of D3 standouts signing in USL, lower‑division Europe or Scandinavia, and very occasionally even reaching MLS after building a strong CV.
The D3 route is highly individual and usually requires domination at the college level, summer play in USL League Two or NPSL, and proactive outreach to coaches and agents. In correlation terms, D3 sits at the bottom of the NCAA ladder for pro probability, but it cannot be written off entirely for exceptional players willing to hustle for opportunities beyond their division label.
NAIA: similar to strong D2/D3
NAIA programs occupy a middle ground that, in soccer, often looks comparable to solid D2 or upper‑tier D3 in playing level, especially at nationally ranked schools. Some NAIA teams have strong international rosters and have produced players who moved into USL, MLS and foreign leagues after standout careers.
Because NAIA uses more flexible eligibility and recruiting rules, it can attract non‑traditional or older players with legitimate pro tools who needed a different academic route, which slightly boosts its pro visibility relative to the number of teams. Overall, the correlation to professional outcomes is similar to the top segment of D2: realistic for a limited group of high‑end NAIA players, but uncommon across the division as a whole.
Junior college: developmental launchpad
Junior colleges function less as a final platform and more as a developmental springboard, especially for players who need to grow physically, repair academics or get game film against college‑age opponents. Many strong JUCO programs carry D1‑level athletes who are there for cost or eligibility reasons, and some have produced pros after those players transferred on to D1 or D2.
The typical pathway is JUCO to a four‑year program and then into the pro market, with the two‑year stop providing minutes, video and maturity that were missing in high school. Direct moves from JUCO to pro can happen, particularly for standout internationals or exceptional domestic athletes impressing at USL trials, but they are rare compared to the transfer‑first route.
How families should interpret the correlations
For parents and players, the key is to recognize that each step down from D1 generally lowers the baseline probability of a professional outcome, but none of the levels completely closes that door for an exceptional, driven player. At every level, the factors that really move the needle are performance, physical and tactical readiness, and exposure in environments that pros actually scout—especially USL League Two, NPSL, MLS NEXT Pro and USL academies.
Choosing a college home should therefore be less about chasing the division label and more about finding a place where the player will play meaningful minutes, develop, and plug into summer and off‑season opportunities that keep the professional pathway alive if the talent ceiling allows it.
Ron Stitt
Co-Founder, U.S. Soccer Parent